Report: Disney+ to Lead Next “OTT Boom” in Western Europe

Digital TV Research has forecast 131.2 million gross SVOD subscriptions in Western Europe by 2024, doubling from 65.19 million by end-2018, with Disney+ expected to make “a strong and immediate impact.”

Around 13 million subscribers will be added in 2019 alone, with a similar number of additions forecast for 2020.

The firm predicts SVOD homes will pay for an average of 1.71 SVOD subscriptions by 2024, up from 1.42 in 2018. About 43.4 percent of TV households will have at least one SVOD subscription by 2024, up from 26.3 percent in 2018.

Breaking it down by country, penetration will reach nearly two-thirds of TV households in Norway but will be under 30 percent in Italy. Gross SVOD subscriptions will represent 74.2 percent of Western European TV households by 2024, double from 37.3 percent at end-2018. Germany, Italy, France and Spain will all be below the regional average by 2024.

Netflix is expected to remain the largest pan-regional SVOD platform by some distance, with 54.86 million paying subscribers expected by 2024—42 percent of the region’s total. This proportion is down from 54 percent in 2018, but it does mean that the platform will add 20 million subscribers.

Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research, said: “Disney+ will make a strong and immediate impact, given its extensive brand recognition and impressive content lineup. We forecast 19.18 million paying subscribers by 2024—fast approaching Amazon Prime Video.”