Digital TV Research is forecasting that Western Europe will have 238 million SVOD subscriptions by 2027, up from 165 million at the end of 2021.
According to the firm’s latest figures, six U.S.-based platforms will account for 81 percent of all SVOD subscriptions in Western Europe by 2027: Netflix, Amazon Prime, Disney+, Paramount+, HBO Max and Apple TV+.
Netflix will have 62 million subscribers by 2027, a gain of 3 million from 2021. Subscriptions are flat for 2022 due mainly to increased competition. Netflix’s share of the total will fall from 36 percent in 2021 to 26 percent by 2027.
Disney+ will have 46 million subscribers by 2027, up by 20 million. Paramount+/SkyShowtime will add 11 million subscribers, and HBO Max will garner an extra 5 million subs.
SVOD revenues in Western Europe will total $25 billion by 2027, up from $16 billion in 2021. The U.K. is poised to remain the SVOD revenue leader.
Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research, said: “Netflix will slowly lose SVOD revenues as we assume that it will convert its cheapest tier to a lower-priced hybrid AVOD-SVOD tier. Any SVOD revenue shortfall will be more than covered by its AVOD revenues. Netflix will remain the SVOD revenue winner, although its share of the total will fall from nearly half in 2021 to a third in 2027.”