New projections from Digital TV Research indicate that Netflix will remain the world’s largest SVOD service until 2027, when it is expected to be overtaken by Disney+.
In 2026, Netflix is projected to have 275 million subs, ahead of Disney+’s 270.7 million and Prime Video’s 245.9 million, with HBO Max at 82.6 million and Apple TV+’s 36.1 million. These five platforms will control 53 percent of the projected 1.7 billion SVOD subs by 2026 for a total of 910 million customers.
“Our previous forecasts based on June 2021 results estimated that Disney+ would overtake Netflix in 2025,” said Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research. “Based on the September 2021 results, we now expect that this will happen in 2027.”
Between 2021 and 2026, Digital TV Research expects Disney+ will add 140 million subs. By 2026, about 38 percent of Disney+’s 270 million customers will be in Asia, served under the Hotstar brand. “Disney+ only started in six new countries during 2021,” Murray said. “Delayed from 2021, the Eastern Europe launches will take place in 2022. This is likely to push back the remaining Asian launches to 2023.”