There will be some 10 million SVOD subscribers across Sub-Saharan Africa by 2023, up from 1.6 million at the end of last year, according to Digital TV Research, but revenues from that base will only reach $775 million.
South Africa will have the largest base at 3.4 million, followed by Nigeria’s 2.6 million; together, they’ll account for 60 percent of the SVOD subscriber pie in the region. By platform, Netflix will maintain a commanding lead, with its estimated 681,000 subs last year rising to 4 million by 2023, 40 percent of the total. Second place goes to Showmax, with a projected 1.7 million subs by 2023, followed closely by iRoko with 1.5 million. Other key players include Amazon, Kwesé Play and iflix. The top six platforms will hold onto their 90 percent share of the total SVOD market.
“Market dynamics have shifted over the last year,” said Simon Murray, principal analyst. “There have been many fewer platform launches, especially on a country level. Furthermore, several multinational players are expected to rein in their ambitions whereas Netflix has consolidated its market leadership. We believe that iRoko will concentrate mostly on West Africa. A significant stake in iflix was sold to Econet, which we believe will mean more focus on Eastern and Southern Africa. Multichoice announced that Showmax will be given free to premium DStv subscribers across Africa, with Compact subscribers offered Showmax for half price.”