New forecasts from Zenith project that global adspend will rise by 4.4 percent to reach $640 billion, with similar forecasts for 2020 and 2021.
Zenith anticipates a 4.3-percent gain in 2020 and 4.4 percent in 2021 (as compared to the June forecast of 4.4-percent growth in 2020 and 4.3 percent in 2021.) Next year, with U.S. elections, the Summer Olympics and the UEFA Euro 2020 tournament, there should be a bigger gain, but “given current political and economic uncertainty, brands are being cautious about committing to extra spending at the moment,” Zenith reports. “This may change as the sports events approach, along with the opportunities they provide to reach valuable and engaged audiences. We will look out for signs of strengthening demand over the next few months.”
Jonathan Barnard, head of forecasting at Zenith, reports, “We have slightly downgraded our expectations for 2019 amid a marginally weaker trading environment. But growth should then remain steady out to 2021, powered by the robust U.S. advertising market.”
Television is expected to slip from $182 billion in 2019 to $180 billion in 2021, accounting for 27 percent of the total ad pie. Zenith’s Advertising Expenditure Forecasts also reports that social media will become the third-largest ad channel this year after television (29 percent) and paid search (17 percent), toppling print from that spot. “Social media advertising gives brands the opportunity to drive growth by using automated tools to optimize their campaigns for key business objectives,” said Matt James, Zenith’s global brand president. “By using first-party data from their own websites to identify potential customers on social media, brands can convert consumers who are already on the path to purchase and target look-a-like audiences more effectively.”
The U.S. remains a key contributor to ad spend, accounting for about 48 percent of new ad dollars this year. The overall North American ad market is expected to see a 5-percent gain this year.
Zenith has downgraded its European forecasts, with a 1.9 percent increase projected in Western Europe this year, down from the previous 2.4 percent forecast, and 4.7 percent in CEE, down from 6.1 percent. AsiaPac ad growth is also slowing, with a 4.4 percent forecast for this year following a 6.9-percent gain in 2018.
The forecast for Latin America is a 2.4-percent gain, while the MENA market is projected to see a 4.8-percent decline this year.