U.S. Pay-TV Revenues Forecast to Fall by $27 Billion

U.S. pay-TV revenues peaked in 2015, at $101.71 billion, according to the eighth edition of the North America Pay TV Forecasts report from Digital TV Research.

A $26.58 billion decline (26 percent) is predicted between 2015 and 2023, taking the total down to $75.13 billion.

Cable TV revenues peaked in 2010, according to the report, at $54.11 billion. They are expected to fall to $36.75 billion by 2023. Cable will lose nearly 12 million subscribers between 2010 and 2023—most of the heaviest losses have already taken place.

Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research, said: “Cable TV is not the only platform to suffer. Satellite TV and IPTV are also losing subscribers and revenues. Much of this is due to the operators shifting their subscribers to online platforms. However, growth from MVPDs is not expected to make up completely for the subscriber and revenue shortfalls from traditional pay TV.”

IPTV revenues spiked in 2015 at $9.60 billion, and they will halve to $4.77 billion in 2023. The number of IPTV subscribers topped 12 million in 2014, but it will decline to 6.26 million in 2023.

Meanwhile, satellite TV revenues are forecast to fall from $39.78 billion in 2017 to $33.61 billion in 2023, down by 16 percent. Satellite TV subscriptions will drop by 4.08 million between end-2017 and 2023.

The number of U.S. traditional pay-TV subscribers is forecast to fall from a peak of 100.34 million in 2012 to 90.35 million by end-2017 and down to 80.33 million in 2023. Pay-TV penetration will fall from 87.6 percent of TV households in the record year 2013 to 66.7 percent in 2023.