Kagan Projects Further Erosion in Pay-TV Subs Base

Over the next five years, the number of U.S. pay-TV subscribing households will fall by 10.8 million to reach 82.3 million in 2021, according to new projections from Kagan.

Streamed bundles, online subscription services, self-aggregation and over-the-air delivery are playing more prominent roles in the video landscape, Kagan reports.

“Changing viewing habits point to mounting losses for traditional video services, and challengers are lining up to capitalize,” said Ian Olgeirson, research director for S&P Global Market Intelligence. “However, the operators are not without significant fortifications enabling expectations for preserving a majority share in the five-year outlook.”

While pay TV will retain its majority of the video business, the non-multichannel tally is on pace to exceed one quarter of occupied households in 2017 and peak at one third by 2021. Included in that number are homes relying solely on OTT, which will count for 18 million, or 14 percent of occupied homes, in 2021. The number subscribing to a “virtual service provider” like Sling TV or PlayStation Vue is expected to hit 11 million.