Digital TV Research: U.S. SVOD Revenues to Plateau

Digital TV Research forecasts that U.S. SVOD revenue growth will be essentially flat from 2024 to 2027, pointing to price competition and lower ARPUs from Netflix’s hybrid AVOD-SVOD tier.

Revenues are projected to grow by $14 billion from $43 billion in 2021 to $56 billion in 2024.

Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research, said: “Netflix will remain the SVOD revenue winner. However, the platform will lose $1.4 billion in SVOD revenues between 2022 and 2027 due to lower ARPUs from 2023. Netflix will more than recoup these SVOD revenue losses with AVOD sales.”

Netflix is forecast to have 63 million subscribers by 2027, down by 4 million from 2021. Hulu, Disney+, HBO and Paramount+ will each count 40 million to 50 million subscribers by 2027.

Digital TV Research does note that some consolidation—mergers and closures—is likely.