Netflix & Amazon Driving Western European SVOD Market

December 8, 2016 Kristin Brzoznowski Analysis, Top Stories
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LONDON: A new report from Digital TV Research forecasts 55.17 million paying SVOD subscribers across 17 countries in Western Europe by 2021, with Netflix and Amazon Prime Video as the dominant services.

The Western Europe SVOD Forecasts report expects Netflix to remain the dominant force in Western European SVOD for the next five years. However, Amazon Video will provide a competitive challenge, as Digital TV Research estimates that 15 Western European countries will offer Amazon Prime Video by end-2017. Netflix’s share of Western European SVOD subscribers will fall from 51 percent in 2015 to 47 percent by 2021. Amazon’s share will grow from 14 percent in 2015 to 21 percent by 2021. Together, these two companies control two-thirds of the region’s SVOD subs.

The 55.17 million paying SVOD subs by 2021 is up from 24.17 million in 2015 and an expected 32.87 million by end-2016. More than 8 million subscribers will be added in 2016 alone. Around 31.5 percent of the region’s TV households will subscribe to a SVOD platform by 2021; up from 14.1 percent recorded by end-2015.

SVOD penetration will remain notably higher in the Nordic countries and the U.K. However, four of the five largest countries—France, Germany, Italy and Spain—will be below the Western European average.

Western European SVOD revenues are expected to total $5.87 billion by 2021, up from $2.15 billion in 2015. The U.K. will remain the SVOD revenue leader, generating more than Germany and France combined in 2021. German and French revenues are expected to more than triple over the same period.

Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research, said: “The U.K. will remain market leader, but Germany will close the gap. The U.K. accounted for a third of SVOD subscribers in 2015, but this proportion will fall to a quarter by 2021.”

He continued: “SVOD growth will be more modest in France, Italy and Spain. In fact, the Netherlands and Sweden will have more SVOD subs than Spain in 2021, despite having much smaller populations.”