Sky Poised to Overtake Liberty Global as Largest Pay-TV Firm in W. Europe

LONDON: While Liberty Global has been the largest pay-TV operator in Europe for some time, Sky Europe is expected to overtake its subscriber count in Western Europe in 2017, according to Digital TV Research.

Liberty Global’s subscriber count will dip, as the company has to try to convert 8 million analog cable subs in 2010 to none by 2020 (some of these subs will be lost to other digital platforms).

Pay-TV subs for the 66 operators across 15 countries covered in the Western Europe Pay TV Operator Forecasts report will increase from a collective 82 million in 2010 to 93.1 million by 2020. Covering 98 platforms, these operators will continue to represent just under 90 percent of Western European pay-TV subscribers. Only 36 (55 percent) of these operators will add to subscribers between 2014 and 2020. Spain’s Telefonica will add 2.18 million IPTV subscribers between 2014 and 2020 to take its total to 3.84 million. The U.K.’s BT and TalkTalk will also gain—increasing by 999,000 and 607,000 IPTV subs, respectively.
 
At the other end of the spectrum, Germany’s Unitymedia will lose 592,000 cable TV subs, followed by the Netherlands’ UPC (down by 400,000) and Sweden’s Com Hem (down by 390,000 subs). France’s TNT will lose a third of its subs, with Switzerland’s UPC/Cablecom and Finland’s Canal Digital down by a quarter.

Total subscription and VOD revenues for the 66 operators will remain at around $29 billion. These operators account for about 92 percent of Western European pay-TV revenues. Sky Europe will remain at the top of the revenues league, recording $10.5 billion subscription and VOD revenues by 2020.
 
Subscription and VOD revenues will fall for 37 of the 66 operators (56 percent) covered in the Western Europe Pay TV Operator Forecasts report between 2014 and 2020. UPC in the Netherlands will be the biggest winner, increasing revenues by $310 million between 2014 and 2020 as subs convert from analog to digital. However, France’s CanalSat will lose $229 million as homes convert to fixed/triple-play options.