Forecast: Global Pay-TV Revenues to Slip by 11 Percent

According to Digital TV Research, global pay-TV revenues peaked in 2016 at $205 billion and are forecast to fall by 11 percent to $183 billion in 2023.

The Global Pay TV Revenue Forecasts report predicts that the number of pay-TV subscribers will rise by 9 percent during the period. However, revenues per subscriber are declining as more homes convert to bundles.

Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research, said: “North American revenues will fall by a huge $22 billion between 2017 and 2023. The global decline will be $19 billion, so the other regions will grow overall. Western Europe will lose $2 billion but the Asia Pacific will record a $3 billion increase.”

It is estimated that that eight of the top ten countries will lose pay-TV revenues between 2017 and 2023. Revenues are set to decline in 47 of the 138 countries covered in the report between 2017 and 2023. Twelve countries will lose more than 10 percent of their revenues. U.S. pay-TV revenues peaked in 2015, at $102 billion; a $27 billion decline is forecast between 2015 and 2023 to take its total down to $75 billion. China will gain nearly $1 billion in pay-TV revenues between 2017 and 2023, bringing its total to $13 billion—still a long way behind the U.S. India will see the largest increase in pay-TV revenues, at $1.6 billion. Revenues will more than double for six countries between 2017 and 2023. Eight of the top ten fast-growth nations by percentage increase will be in Africa.

Satellite TV revenues were $83 billion in 2017, dipping to $77 billion by 2023. Digital cable TV will supply $76 billion in 2023, down from $85 billion in 2023. Analog cable TV still accounted for $7 billion in 2017. IPTV holds strong in pay-TV revenues, which are set to increase from $25 billion in 2017 to $27 billion in 2023.