Networked Insights: NBC’s Pickups

NEW YORK: Using social media to track interest in the U.S. networks’ new series, Networked Insights’ lead television analyst, Sean Reckwerdt, offers up his picks for the NBC shows that will prove to be hits, and the ones that will likely fail to resonate with viewers.

Networked Insights, a Goldman Sachs-funded firm that advises networks and brands on how audiences are responding to shows and advertising, tracks three elements of social performance: the volume of conversations generated, the sentiment, combining positive and negative to get a net score, and acceleration—is the conversation increasing over time. These factors are taken into account to come up with a Social Index ranking. Ahead of the Upfronts the company also analyzes the performance of series that are similar to the new pilots to come up with a “look-a-like” sentiment and looks at the popularity of a show’s cast and crew.

At NBC, Reckwerdt’s top pick is Revolution, slated for Mondays at 10 p.m. Networked Insights gives the series a 144 Social Index—with 100 as the ranking for an average show. Distributed globally by Warner Bros. International Television, the show explores what life would be like if electricity mysteriously vanished. The show is exec produced by J.J. Abrams—but Reckwerdt notes that that may not necessarily be the main appeal of the show. “Since Lost he’s not been able to rekindle any TV magic,” Reckwerdt notes. According to Networked Insights’ research, it’s the involvement of Eric Kipke, the creator of The CW hit Supernatural, as executive producer that’s proving to be a more compelling element for viewers. “He is really driving a lot of the conversations. And the combination with Abrams is a positive. One thing Abrams does bring in is the big budget aspect.”

Reckwerdt also sees potential in the midseason replacement 1600 Penn, a family comedy set in the White House that has been compared to Modern Family—an association that should serve the show well, Reckwerdt notes. The casting of Bill Pullman may also entice audiences, but Reckwerdt expects Josh Gad, portraying the President’s “kooky son,” to become a fan favorite.

Rounding out Reckwerdt’s top three is The New Normal, a Tuesday night comedy about a gay Beverly Hills couple and the Midwestern waitress they enlist to be a surrogate mom. Glee co-creator Ryan Murphy is behind the 20^th Century Fox Television show. “It’s not going to appeal to everyone,” Reckwerdt cautions. “But Gleeks are huge online and there is going to be rollover between the programs, especially now that Glee is aging a bit. His style of writing and humor appeals to a pretty broad audience.”

At the top of Reckwerdt’s list of shows that won’t resonate is Next Caller, a midseason replacement starring Dane Cook as a foulmouthed satellite radio DJ. While Reckwerdt acknowledges there is a Dane Cook fan base out there, he sees the appeal of the show being limited. Matthew Perry, meanwhile, headlines another show that Reckwerdt thinks is doomed: Go On. Reckwerdt believes that the sports setting—Perry plays a sportscaster who signs up for group therapy after the death of his wife—may alienate some viewers. Plus, Reckwerdt notes, Perry’s TV track record since Friends “has been pretty poor.” Completing Reckwerdt’s bottom three is the midseason drama Infamous, which hasn’t yet been able to generate much interest, he notes. The series’ Social Index, according to Networked Insights, is just 59.

Other shows with middling scores, according to Networked Insights: Hannibal, ranked at 79, and Dick Wolf’s Chicago Fire, at 75.