MPA: Disney+ Hotstar Could Hit 100 Million Subs in Five Years

Media Partners Asia (MPA) estimates that Disney+ Hotstar in India has the potential to reach 100 million paying subscribers by 2025, delivering more than $1 billion in revenues.

Sports, local content, global originals and serving as a “super aggregator” will drive growth of the platform, MPA says. The lucrative Indian online video sector is projected to deliver $4 billion in revenues in 2025, up from $1.4 billion this year, with SVOD contributing $1.5 billion and advertising $2.5 billion. MPA estimates Disney+ Hotstar could have 25 percent of the total online video revenue pie in India by 2025, behind YouTube. Disney+ launched in India with Hotstar in March.

These gains will be dependent on three factors: Disney+ Hotstar accelerating investment in product innovation, content creation and acquisition and retaining key sports rights; the development of new features such as gaming and aggregating more local content, live and on-demand; and expansion of its technology and potentially its brand to Southeast Asia.

MPA’s base analysis has Disney+ Hotstar reaching 93 million paying subscribers by 2025, generating $587 million in subscription revenue and $314 million in ad revenue. This estimate is based on some cricket events being broadcast in September, the retention of key rights such as IPL, and Disney+ Hotstar aggregating more local and global content.

MPA’s more optimistic scenario has the platform reaching 102 million subs by 2025. However, if there is no IPL this year and limited live cricket days, Disney+ Hotstar does not transform into a super aggregator and growth is driven by telcos rather than direct to consumer, the number of projected subs falls to 74 million, with revenues at $675 million.

At present, MPA estimates that Disney+ is contributing about 20 percent to Hotstar’s premium subs in total, with an upside potential of 25 percent to 30 percent.