GroupM Improves Forecast for TV Ad Market

The television advertising market is forecast to grow by 11.7 percent in 2021, according to the latest figures from GroupM, though the industry is not expected to fully rebound until 2023.

In its Global End-of-Year Forecast, GroupM has revised its June estimate of 9.3 percent growth for TV advertising upward. Given 2020’s decline of 13.7 percent, though, a return to 2019 levels is not expected until 2023, excluding U.S. political advertising.

Subsequent years will be generally flat for television in most major markets around the world, says GroupM, as the largest advertisers that historically dominate the medium continue to incrementally shift their spending elsewhere. These shifts are offset in part by growing TV budgets from the larger upstarts (whose businesses are primarily online). Overall, total TV advertising should amount to $171 billion in 2022 and, of that figure, approximately $17 billion will go to Connected TV+. Connected TV+ remains poised to grow substantially, with GroupM’s forecast for 2026 now up to $33 billion.

Overall, the Global End-of-Year Forecast shows a much faster expansion in the advertising industry than previously anticipated, driven primarily by growth in the U.S., U.K. and China. These three markets together account for approximately 70 percent of all the industry’s growth, despite making up about 60 percent of the total market.

For 2021, the forecasted growth is 22.5 percent (excluding U.S. political advertising), an upward revision from June’s prediction of 19.2 percent. For 2022, growth of 9.7 percent (excluding U.S. political advertising) is projected, an upward revision from June’s prediction of 8.8 percent.

Looking at the top ten advertising markets over the next five years, growth should get back to the mid- to high-single digits: France, Germany, Australia and the U.S. are all poised to grow in a range of 4 to 5 percent annually, on average, over the next five years. India, the U.K., Brazil, Canada, Japan and China are forecast to grow between 6 to 8 percent annually, on average.