The global pay-TV penetration rate will see its first yearly decline in 2024, according to Ampere Analysis research, after peaking at 60.3 percent in the fourth quarter of this year.
The fall is being driven by North America, but all regions will be in decline by 2025, Ampere projects. North American pay-TV penetration has plunged from 84 percent in 2009 to just 45 percent this year. Its annual revenue per user will still be the highest in the world, at more than $1,100. Latin America has been in decline since 2016, led by Brazil. Asia and Europe have led pay TV growth over the last few years, driven by low-cost IPTV services.
Rory Gooderick, senior analyst at Ampere Analysis, noted: “Growth in global pay-TV uptake has been driven over the last five years by the Asia Pacific and Central and Eastern Europe. However, declines coming from the Americas, which are driven by streaming competition and the high price of pay TV in North America, currently sitting at over $90 a month, will contribute to global pay TV penetration declining for the first time in 2024. However, despite the projected decline in the reach of pay TV products, cable and satellite platforms will remain a powerful force in the TV world and important distribution partners for streaming products, as evidenced by the recent distribution deal between Disney and Charter in the U.S., which saw select Disney streaming services bundled into Charter’s TV packages. This package structure, already increasingly common in Europe and parts of Asia, offers a framework for traditional cable TV companies to transition their business into a streaming aggregation play and stabilize subscriber trajectories.”