Global Adspend Set for 8 Percent Gain in 2022

New projections from WARC indicate global ad expenditures will rise by 8.3 percent this year to reach $880.9 billion, with growth slowing significantly in 2023.

WARC has already downgraded its projections for 2022 and 2023 by $90 billion and is forecasting that ad revenues will only rise by 2.6 percent in 2023. This year is expected to be lifted by the U.S. midterm elections and the World Cup in Qatar in November.

AVOD is seen as a bright spot, WARC notes, rising faster than the overall market this year and next. WARC anticipates ad revenues in the video streaming sector will grow by 8.4 percent this year and 7 percent next year. Within this, AVOD will be up 8 percent in 2022 and 7.6 percent in 2023 to reach a value of almost $65 billion. YouTube is expected to have a 39.4 percent share of that market this year, with that eroding as Disney+ and Netflix introduce their ad-supported tiers.

BVOD is also on the rise, with revenues on track to grow by 9.7 percent this year and 5.2 percent next year. Linear TV will benefit from this year’s sports and election cycles, growing by 3.6 percent to reach $180 billion before dropping by 4.5 percent next year.

“With the growth rate of global output now set to halve and acute supply-side pressures fanning inflation, the economic slowdown has removed close to $90 billion from global ad market growth prospects this year and next,” said James McDonald, director of data, intelligence and forecasting at WARC. “Yet brands are still spending as the Covid recovery continues, and global ad trade remains on course to top $1 trillion in value by 2025. Platforms with rich sources of first-party data—most notably Amazon, Google and Apple—are well placed to weather future headwinds by offering measured performance in a climate where return on investment becomes paramount.”