GroupM: Global Ad Revenues to Fall 9.9 Percent in 2020

New forecasts from GroupM project that global advertising revenues will fall 9.9 percent this year.

The forecasts were revealed in GroupM’s mid-year This Year Next Year report.

Excluding the effects of increased political adspend in the U.S., global ad spend will drop by 11.8 percent, as compared with a 6.2 percent boost last year.

Markets that will see especially sharp declines in 2020 include Brazil (29.1 percent), Japan (20 percent), Australia (19 percent), France (15 percent) and the U.K. (12.5 percent). India, the MENA region and Spain will also see declines of more than 20 percent. The only multi-billion-dollar market where GroupM projects growth is Indonesia, where expectations are for a 5.8 percent increase.

Looking ahead to 2021, GroupM forecasts a gain of 8.2 percent excluding the U.S.; including the U.S. there will be a 5.9 percent increase. Double-digit gains are expected in Australia (25.2 percent), Japan (15 percent), Brazil (15 percent), the U.K. (12.6 percent) and Germany (10.6 percent). France will see a high single-digit growth. China is expected to see a 9.2 percent increase. Advertising in the U.S., however, will slip by 0.9 percent.

Television advertising will drop by 17.6 percent in 2020 (excluding political advertising in the U.S.), GroupM says, rebounding slightly in 2021 with a 5.9 percent gain. Digital extensions and related media, including advertising associated with traditional media owners’ streaming activities, as well as services such as Hulu and Roku, will actually rise by 3.7 percent this year and 11.4 percent in 2021.

Television plus digital extensions will have a 26 percent share of the ad pie in 2020.