Viewpoint: Crystal-Ball Gazing

As we embark on a new year in media, it’s a good time to look back at the issues that made headlines in World Screen Newsflash in 2010, and what they could mean for this business in 2011.

After the tough times the media business experienced in 2009, 2010 was, in many respects, a quiet, relatively upbeat year. No writers’ strikes, but plenty of channel blackouts; no real game changers, but the iPad came close; much talk about 3D in the home, much less action.

The disputes between channels and pay-TV platforms—seemingly endless last year—are unlikely to disappear, with providers still complaining about exorbitant renewal fees, while broadcasters and cable networks vent their frustration about inadequate compensation. In response, the Federal Communications Commission is at work on a new set of rules to govern retransmission-consent disputes.

This year will see the rollout of a 3D network from Discovery Communications, IMAX and Sony. Depending on the take-up of 3D TV sets, other channels are likely to follow suit. Recent reports indicate that the number of 3D TV shipments worldwide is set to reach 41 million by 2014. Already in place to capitalize on that demand are ESPN, which launched a 3D channel in time for the World Cup, and Sky in the U.K., among many others.

Sky was making headlines for a number of other reasons too, including its battle to hold on to a sizeable stake of ITV, its acquisition of Virgin Media’s channel bouquet and its possible takeover by News Corporation. The European Commission has given News Corp. approval to take a majority interest in the platform, but the proposed transaction still faces a number of hurdles. Elsewhere in the U.K., three out of the big four broadcasters experienced management overhauls in 2010:Adam Crozier took the reins at ITV, David Abraham took over at Channel 4 and Five is now owned by Richard Desmond’s Northern & Shell.

Excluding Desmond’s purchase of Five, 2010 was a relatively quiet year for merger-and-acquisition activity in Europe. However, Liberty Global took over the German cable-TV platform Unitymedia and Polish platform Aster. Central European Media Enterprises acquired the Bulgarian free-to-air commercial broadcaster bTV. And Europe’s big independent content creators, including FremantleMedia, Endemol, Zodiak and Banijay, all got bigger last year, and will undoubtedly continue to do so.

In North America, meanwhile, Comcast and GE spent the better part of 2010 making their case for the new ownership of NBC Universal to U.S. regulators, and announcing a new senior executive team, led by Steve Burke. The joint venture will likely become a reality in the early part of 2011.

MGM, heavily in debt, filed for bankruptcy protection and is now mostly owned by its creditors, with a stake in the hands of Spyglass Entertainment. Lionsgate fended off Carl Icahn’s advances all year, but the billionaire financier is still unhappy about how the studio is being run; you can expect that battle to continue. The former indie Miramax is independent again, following its sale to a consortium of investors by The Walt Disney Company. Meanwhile, in Canada, Shaw Communications now has a controlling stake in Canwest Global, while Bell is taking full control of CTV.

Managing release windows has become a key issue for the studios, as online streaming continues to erode DVD sales. Netflix became a force to be reckoned with as it locked in content deals to make movies and TV shows available for online streaming. And media companies rushed to offer up apps to deliver content to the iPad. The Apple device is no longer the only tablet on the market, but it is likely to remain the front runner for some time. Apple TV, the set-top box that delivers Internet content to the TV set, has also been a hit; less noteworthy was Google TV, which has been blocked by a host of companies.

Meanwhile, the jury is still out as to what impact the proliferation of online streaming, tablets and content-download services will have on the old-media model of pay TV. Fears of “cord cutting” will continue in 2011.

For the international distribution community, the story that dominated many conversations was the volcano that had MIPTV attendees stranded for days. Another hot topic was international co-productions, in the wake of shrinking budgets. While ad revenues are returning and spending by broadcasters is set to increase, the need for multi-country partnerships is unlikely to wane anytime soon.

This past year marked several landmarks for World Screen. Our 25th anniversary. The Gold Ink Award for best-printed trade magazine in the world. Two new publications—TV Middle East and Africa and TV Formats Distributors Guide—a website, TVKids.ws; and new online destinations, TVCanada.ws and TVMEA.ws. We published a comprehensive guide to U.S. cable channels, compiled by our new special projects editor, the veteran reporter Jay Stuart. So what’s to come from World Screen in 2011? Two new resources for the format business, TV Formats Weekly and TVFormats.ws; upcoming reports on channels around the world; a new website for the factual business; and much more.