Digital TV Research: Cord-Cutting ‘Very Limited’ in Western Europe

LONDON: Pay-TV penetration is expected to increase in Western Europe from 56.7 percent at the end of 2014 to 60.4 percent in 2020, according to a new report from Digital TV Research.

So, even though Western Europe is showing signs of market maturity, cord-cutting is still not making much of an impact. The number of pay-TV subs is forecast to increase by 2.57 million in 2015 to 99 million (up from 92.86 million in 2010) as Western Europe begins to ease out of the recession. Pay-TV subscriptions will only increase by 8.38 million (up by 8.7 percent) between 2014 and 2020 to 104.81 million. However, the number of digital pay-TV subs will grow by 23.1 percent (nearly 20 million), with analog cable subs declining from 11.31 million in 2014 to zero by 2019.

Paying IPTV subscriber numbers are poised to overtake pay satellite TV ones this year. IPTV subs will increase by 8.6 million (up by 37 percent) between 2014 and 2020 compared with 1.2 million additions for pay satellite TV (up by 5 percent) and 300,000 for pay DTT (up by 6 percent). Digital cable subs will increase by nearly 10 million (up by 30 percent) over the same period.

Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research, said: “Despite the number of pay TV homes increasing, pay TV revenues will remain flat at around $32 billion. ARPU is falling in most countries and on most platforms. The pay-TV arena is becoming more competitive as newer platforms (especially IPTV ones—but also including OTT/SVOD) launch. Greater competition means cheaper channel packages. Bundling increases overall ARPU for operators, but leads to lower TV ARPU.”