Over the next five years, the COVID-19 pandemic will cost the worldwide entertainment business $160 billion, according to Ampere Analysis.
“There are two ways to look at the loss of value: gross revenue and relative change,” said Guy Bisson, research director at Ampere Analysis. “Advertising is hit hardest both near term and overall, but drilling down into entertainment sectors shows that areas like theatrical are hit proportionally harder. The interconnected nature of the entertainment value chain means that will have a number of effects in other areas of the value chain—some of which will not be fully felt for several years to come.”
Theatrical will lose $24.4 billion over the next five years, with its revenue growth down more than 11 percent over Ampere’s previous forecasts.
Excluding advertising, the entertainment sector will lose $23 billion of growth compared to pre-COVID-19 forecasts. This reflects just a 1.2 percent reduction on the previously forecast value over the five-year period. Streaming will help this sector emerge from the pandemic in better shape. Streaming will gain 12 percent of additional growth in revenue terms between now and 2025.
Pay TV, taking a hit from the lack of sports coverage, will be down 4 percent from the previously forecast value.
Advertising, online and on TV, will lose nearly $40 billion of growth in 2020 and $43 billion in 2021, with a recovery to begin in 2022.
“Streaming services are likely to come out on top here as viewers are leaning on streaming content providers heavily, just as a slew of new platforms enter the market,” Bisson said. “Yes, there will likely be a temporary post-lockdown backlash. But key to the longer-term prospects is the acceleration of consumer behavioral change, which will benefit streamers.”