ZenithOptimedia Upgrades Ad Forecasts

LONDON: The ad market recovery in developing markets is well under way, while more mature markets are stabilizing and will return to growth in 2011, according to ZenithOptimedia, which has upgraded its advertising revenue forecasts.

Global ad expenditure will grow 2.2 percent in 2010 to reach $456 billion; ZenithOptimedia had previously forecast just 0.9-percent growth this year. Growth will continue for the next few years; 4.1 percent to $474.5 billion in 2011 and 5.3 percent to $499.5 billion in 2012.

The developed markets of North America, Western Europe and Japan, which went through a 12.1-percent decline last year, are stabilizing. North America, which will see a 1.5-percent contraction this year to $154.5 billion, will be up by 1.8 percent next year to $157.3 billion and by 3 percent in 2012 to $162 billion. In Western Europe, the market will be stable this year at $108.3 billion, rising 2.4 percent next year and 3.2 percent in 2012.

In the Asia Pacific, there will be a 5.9-percent growth rate this year (10 percent excluding Japan) to $107.7 billion, rising to 6.6 percent next year and 7.7 percent the year after. In Central and Eastern Europe, after a 23.1-percent drop last year, the ad market will rise to $28.9 billion this year, a 5.7-percent growth, to be followed by 8.5 percent in 2011 and 10.1 percent in 2012. Latin America will also see strong gains, of 9.3 percent this year to $33.4 billion, 6.5 percent in 2011 and 7.9 percent in 2012. In Africa, the Middle East and the rest of the world, ad spend will grow by between 6 percent and 7 percent each year, reaching $26.5 billion by 2012.

Television will continue to take the lion’s share of ad spend—about 40 percent—reaching $199.7 billion by 2012. The Internet will see its share of the pie increase from 12.6 percent in 2009 to 17.1 percent in 2012.