ZenithOptimedia Again Upgrades Global Ad Forecasts

LONDON: A continuing recovery in the global ad market has prompted ZenithOptimedia to upgrade its growth forecast for this year to 4.8 percent from 3.5 percent, and for 2011 to 4.6 percent from 4.5 percent, while a 5.4-percent increase is forecast for 2012.

Television has held up well and will continue to do so, with the medium’s share increasing from 39.2 percent in 2009 to 41.6 percent in 2012. Television ad spend this year was $180.35 billion.

All regions have grown faster than expected this year, ZenithOptimedia reports. Minor upgrades have been issued for Asia Pacific, Central & Eastern Europe and Africa/Middle East/Rest of World (of between 0.2 and 0.5 percentage points), all of which have been posting healthy gains for some time.

In Asia, Japan and New Zealand are the only territories likely to see declines this year. China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam are seeing double-digit gains. The region is forecast to grow by 6.4 percent this year to $106 billion, 6.4 percent in 2011 to $112.8 billion and 7.4 percent in 2012 to $121.2 billion.

In Central & Eastern Europe, where ad revenues fell 24.6 percent last year, recovery is under way this year, with adspend rising 7.2 percent to $27.1 billion, followed by a 9.9-percent growth rate in 2011 and 11 percent in 2012. Markets faring well include Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Russia, Serbia, Slovenia, Turkey and Ukraine, while declines are still expected in Bulgaria, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Latvia and Romania.

North America has been given a 2.4-percent growth forecast, up from 1.3 percent, to $160.3 billion. Western Europe is forecast to have a 3-percent growth rate to $103.2 billion, up from 2.2 percent. ZenithOptimedia forecasts 4-percent growth in France, 4.5 percent in the U.K., 4.9 percent in Finland, 6 percent in Norway, 6.6 percent in Sweden and 7.4 percent in Belgium.

The most dramatic revision is in Latin America, where 16.8-percent growth is forecast, up from 7 percent, led by Brazil, where a 26-percent growth rate is forecast for this year. Strong gains are also likely in Argentina, Mexico, Panama, Peru and Venezuela. The region’s ad pie is expected to hit $30.1 billion this year.