Global Pay-TV Set-Top Box Market to Peak in 2012

LONDON: The market for pay-TV set-top boxes will peak at 127 million new units shipped worldwide in 2012, Screen Digest reports, before declining to 119 million units shipped in 2013.

The data, published in the company’s TV Technology Intelligence Service, notes that the market for new boxes is currently being driven by operators transitioning to digital and adding services such as HD and PVRs. Screen Digest forecasts the market will grow from 104 million units in 2008 to 127 million units in 2012, falling to 119 million units in the following year. In addition to the pay-TV market, there will be almost 70 million units shipped in the global free-to-air market in 2013. Much of this new unit demand will be driven by service extensions and digitization of pay-TV platforms in Eastern Europe and the major emerging BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) markets.

The decline in pay-TV set-top box shipments 2013 will be primarily caused by a drop in demand from Chinese cable operators. IPTV is also expected to experience a significant decline in 2013 from 12 million units shipped to 10 million units. IPTV will suffer from slow consumer uptake and low ARPUs, Screen Digest says, adding that the "real opportunity" for IP technology will come from hybrid IP-broadcast DTT boxes.

In the more mature markets, value will be gained by the shift towards high-end HD and PVR boxes; these globally accounted for a quarter of the volume shipments and over half of the total revenue in 2008— by 2013, premium units will account for almost 50 per cent of total shipments and almost 80 per cent of revenue.

"There is still a massive opportunity in the pay-TV market for set-top box vendors, both in premium HD and PVR boxes and through new demand in emerging markets," said Tom Morrod, senior analyst at Screen Digest. "Although unit growth in the mature markets is starting to slow compared to the last five years, value growth will continue, driven by premium devices integrating HD, PVR and additional technologies such as home networking, hybrid service and widgets. While the opportunity presented by IP technology is very real, walled-garden IPTV will not overturn the traditional pay TV operators. The real growth in IP sales will come through traditional satellite and cable operators and is likely to benefit vendors with relationships in the traditional TV market and strong IP technologies."