Global SVOD Revenues to Top $320 Billion in 2030

SVOD revenues globally will rise to $321.9 billion in 2030, up from $105.7 billion last year, according to a new report from MIDiA Research, driven in part by gains in the Asia Pacific.

Global SVOD revenues rose 24.6 percent year-on-year in 2022 and are expected to increase 24.4 percent this year to hit $131.6 billion. Growth has slowed considerably since the 2020 pandemic high of 46.6 percent.

North America will account for 18.2 percent of global video subs this year and 38.6 percent of streaming revenues; these shares are expected to fall to 13.2 percent and 32.2 percent in 2030. The Asia-Pacific, meanwhile, will be home to 56.2 percent of global subs, for a revenue share of 32.2 percent, this year. By 2030 this will rise to 58.8 percent of subs and 34.5 percent of revenues, overtaking North America as the largest revenue market.

Disney is expected to remain in the lead globally, with Netflix in second place.

“The subscription distribution dominance of Asia-Pacific will prompt intense competition from Western SVOD services, as they try to corner the world’s biggest regional market,” said Tim Mulligan, lead video analyst for MIDiA Research. “Western SVOD content commissioning will be partly recalibrated towards Asian movies and shows that speak to global audiences. Efforts to discover the next Squid Game or Parasite will amplify Asia-Pacific culture globally to create a new golden age for Asian entertainment that will compete directly with Hollywood mainstream studio output.”

Perry Gresham, forecast and modeling analyst for MIDiA Research, added: “For the first time, we have created the MIDiA bear scenario, an alternative forecast that considers the case in which the current recession has more impact on video streaming subscriptions than we anticipate. It represents the scenario where, in a harsh 18-month recession, subscribers cancel some number of their subscriptions. Subscription growth over the next two years would more than half. A post-recession rebound will eventually see the gap in subscriptions narrow to just below base—with recovery varying by region. North America and Europe remain the furthest below their base scenario in the years leading up to 2030.”

Ben Woods, video analyst for MIDiA Research, noted: “After eight years of steady expansion, global subscriber numbers will have neared their peak by 2030. That leaves Western SVOD services with a narrowing window of opportunity. With competition intensifying from indigenous services within Asia Pacific and emerging markets, gaining those remaining subscribers will be tough.”