Elizabeth Guider Reports from the L.A. Screenings 2015

LOS ANGELES: A record number of foreign TV program buyers are trickling into Los Angeles for the annual Screenings bazaar—and they'll have a smorgasbord of fresh drama series to gorge on.

Some 1,400 overseas acquisition execs will traipse from one Tinseltown studio to another through May 22 to screen new prospects for their homegrown audiences.

Key buyers from abroad will have two gaping holes to fill on their schedules back home: the long-running global hit CSI will be retired by CBS with a two-hour finale come September, while the stalwart Simon Baker procedural The Mentalist, which Warner Bros. licenses, recently wrapped its seven-year Stateside run.

What U.S. creators will international content buyers be relying on to compensate? Most likely a trio of über-producers—Dick Wolf (at NBC), Shonda Rhimes (at ABC) and Greg Berlanti (based at Warner Bros.), who are already household names around the media world. Each is fielding yet another contender (or two!) this go-round: Wolf has come up with Chicago Med to round out his trifecta of Chicago-based procedurals, Rhimes' ShondaLand is behind new mystery The Catch with Mireille Enos (The Killing), and Berlanti has landed Supergirl on CBS and Blindspot on NBC, among others. Younger-skewing niche nets abroad may prefer a new offering from the prolific producer for The CW, Julie Plec (Vampire Diaries), who has fashioned Containment (formerly Cordon) from a successful Belgian format.

First reactions from a few executives who stopped en route in NYC for the domestic advertising Upfronts were ho-hum, one quipping that the network trailers looked “safe and solid, but sans sizzle.” (Yes, these guys are already in negotiating mode.) Others did hazard a positive comment or two about female-targeted thriller Supergirl at CBS, licensed by Warner Bros.; The Family, toplining Joan Allen on ABC; and The Frankenstein Code, from writer-producers Michael Cuesta and Howard Gordon, at FOX. 

Initial heat can flame out quickly, however. Foreign buyers have to think even more long term than their U.S. counterparts and hence make a point of tamping their initial enthusiasms. (Unless there’s a 30 Rock, Glee or Big Bang Theory in the mix, to cite three that got instant thumbs-up in years past.)

Still, one-hours lose less in translation than half-hour comedies, and hence account for the bulk of the estimated $8-$9 billion which, all told, terrestrial, pay and SVOD players outside the U.S. fork over annually for American-made content to complement and fill out their own homegrown fare. 

Among the Hollywood majors, Sony Pictures Television is now playing a bigger role as a prime-time supplier to the broadcast networks—think The Player with Wesley Snipes, from the producers of The Blacklist (both for NBC)—as is Lionsgate, which has solidified its position in that fray with the returning Nashville.

This annual ritual is big business for all the Hollywood majors—crucial to offsetting the huge deficits prime-time broadcast series now rack up. But it isn’t getting easier.

Overseas buyers have become increasingly hard-nosed and tight-lipped—and the euro has slipped against the greenback, making American shows more expensive. Plus, the flowering of what's now being called "premium video"—on Netflix, Amazon, Hulu as well as on basic and pay cable—means buyers have upwards of 250 U.S.-made dramas of one sort or another to choose from. (Those choices encompass cable hits as diverse as The Americans, The Walking Dead, Rizzoli & Isles, True Detective and Masters of Sex, as well as online faves like Netflix’s House of Cards and Orange Is the New Black.)

The focus of most buyers’ attention over the next week though will be on the two dozen or so new hours just ordered by the five U.S. broadcast networks.

The main things they'll notice from the get-go: a plethora of reboots and spinoffs will underpin the networks' prime-time grids this September. What peppers those schedules will largely be noisy thrillers and heart-stopping medical shows. There being only one Chuck Lorre, only a few new comedies leaven things. One likely lure, though not for the faint of heart: Ryan Murphy's (Glee) latest swing at the fences: Scream Queens, handled by Twentieth Century Fox. A sprinkling of so-called “event” miniseries (CBS is banking on Zoo this summer, based on the James Patterson best seller) and a couple of variety shows also made the final cut.

In most territories, key rival broadcasters have multiyear deals with different studio suppliers and hence are contracted to take the bulk of those suppliers' slates. (The Brits generally play the field; due to spillover signals from the U.S., the Canucks buy in bulk.)

And it is the Canadians—major players Rogers, Shaw and Bell, as well as an indie contingent—who are first off the mark, having come to town Monday to get a jump on the crowds. Their biggest concern is nettlesome Netflix, which, as it increasingly flexes its muscles abroad, is vying for digital rights to top-tier U.S. shows against established foreign broadcasters, who also own niche streaming services. How tense these tussles get, and not just in Canada, is anyone’s guess.

As for their personal predilections, most buyers tend to dismiss (at least to reporters) what they've just seen at any given studio as “derivative,” “uninspiring” or “unlikely to work in Cologne, in Caracas, in Kuala Lumpur…” or wherever they’re from.

That most U.S. networks fell back this year on orders from their own in-house production studio rather than from outside suppliers will no doubt be interpreted by foreign buyers, at least for negotiating purposes, as a sign that the U.S. nets are playing it too safe this go-round. They won’t be thrilled either that so many newcomers to the skeds aren’t premiering until midseason, making it harder to put together their own local grids not knowing how their imports will perform in the States. 

And yet, eventually, despite gripes and groans, deals do get cobbled together. “Yes, the global TV landscape has changed: not all U.S. shows get licensed anymore and many are not slotted in prime time,” Marion Edwards, the president of international television at Twentieth Century Fox Television Distribution, told World Screen Newsflash. “And yet, where else can a station pick up a $3 million (an episode) show for, say, $100,000 (an episode)?” Edwards also suggested that the emergence of digital players like Netflix, Hulu and Amazon with aspirations to stream content worldwide is helping offset whatever shortfalls on the terrestrial side.

In making their decisions, foreign buyers also weigh the hurdles each U.S. net has to overcome to give its newcomer series a chance to stick. The more stable the U.S. network, the better the chances new series can find an audience. And, if shows rate well Stateside, their chances of succeeding abroad are enhanced, though not guaranteed.   

In short, who’s up and who’s down in the ratings has a bearing on how much confidence foreign buyers put in a particular Hollywood supplier’s output. It’s a mixed bag this year.

Take the Peacock, which, other than The Voice and football, has little to strut about in prime time right now. Thus, NBC chieftains have undertaken a wholesale revamp of their prime-time sked, leaning heavily on Wolf and hoping its move of Blacklist to Thursdays will eventually pay off.

For its part, FOX fell a whopping 20 percent in the ratings this season largely because of the dystopian format Utopia and a sagging Idol and is thus having to retool several troubled nights.

More positively, ABC performed quite well in the 18-to-49 demo, so is doing little tinkering, while CBS's long-term solidity means it can move pieces on its game board without undue angst. The CW’s schedule is now built around the Arrow/Flash duo, which it will fill out with DC’s Legends of Tomorrow in the new year as well as Plec’s output.

The cancellations announced over the last ten days have been merciless (highly touted State of Affairs at NBC, The Following at FOX and Battle Creek at CBS, among them) opening up a greater number of slots than usual.

The only major freshman hit on U.S. nets this season—and few foresaw it—was FOX's hip-hop saga Empire, which that studio is now hoping to build on. Edwards put the accent on three procedurals at her shop, which she believes will deliver for foreign buyers the flash and flair they have come to expect from American dramas: Minority Report, based on the Steven Spielberg movie and developed under his auspices, the aforementioned Frankenstein Code, and Rosewood, this last to be paired with Empire. New limited-run versions of The X-Files and 24 are also in the works.

Meanwhile, CBS is trying to do for Criminal Minds what it successfully did for CSI and NCIS: launch a spin-off. It's called Beyond Borders and it toplines CSI: NY alum Gary Sinise. Other big bets are on yet another medical drama, called Code Black, and a series version of the movie Limitless. (One European buyer, who admitted he hadn’t seen much so far, is initially high on “the idea of” an upcoming Showtime drama called Billions, which toplines Paul Giamatti and Damian Lewis. CBS Studios International handles titles from sibling Showtime.)

For its part, ABC brass are bringing the world a new sassier take on, of all things, The Muppets, on Tuesday night and slotting an FBI drama about freshmen recruits at 10 p.m. that’s called Quantico. Several of the Alphabet-net’s other entrants won’t be slotted until midseason. The Disney Media Distribution Upfront presentation kicks off the official Screenings week this Sunday evening.

Want a full overview of the network schedules? Check out World Screen's U.S. Fall Season Grid here.