ZenithOptimedia Upgrades Global Ad Forecasts

LONDON: ZenithOptimedia is forecasting a 3.5 percent increase in global ad revenues this year to $447.5 billion, up from a previous projection of 2.2 percent, with a 1.3-percent increase in the developed markets of North America, Western Europe and Japan and an 8.6-percent growth in the rest of the world.

In 2011, developed markets are forecast to see a 2.4 percent increase, followed by a 2.9 percent bump in 2012, as compared with 9.1 percent and 9.8 percent, respectively for the rest of the world.

North America alone will see a 1.3 percent growth this year to $158.5 billion, versus a previously forecast 1.5 percent decline, notably as a result of improved consumer confidence and spending in the U.S. In Western Europe, a 2.2 percent hike to $102.1 billion is expected for 2010, up from 0.4 percent, followed by 2.6 percent in 2011 and 3.4 percent in 2012. The only market that did not receive an upgrade was Spain, which is expected to incur a 1.7 percent reduction in ad spend this year.

In the Asia Pacific, Japan is likely to see a 0.7 percent reduction in 2010, while the rest of the region appears on track for a 10.6 percent boost, led by gains in China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam. Including Japan, ZenithOptimedia sees Asia-Pac’s ad revenues growing by 5.8 percent this year to $106.15 billion, followed by 6.5 percent in 2011 and 7.5 percent in 2012.

Latin America is seen as having a 7 percent growth in ad revenues this year to $31 billion, with the strongest gains coming from Mexico, Panama, Peru and Venezuela. The 7 percent increase is expected to continue in 2011, increasing to 8.5 percent in 2012.

Central and Eastern Europe, following a whopping 24.6 percent decline in 2009, will see a 7 percent rise this year to $27.1 billion, followed by 9.8 percent in 2011 and 10.9 percent in 2012. The markets in more advanced stages of recovery are Belarus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Russia, Serbia, Slovenia, Turkey and Ukraine. Bulgaria, Estonia, Greece, Hungary and Latvia, meanwhile, are expected to continue experiencing declines this year. Africa and the Middle East will see ad revenues climb 6.9 percent in 2010 to $22.7 billion.

Television advertising fared well during the recession and is forecast to take a 40.8 percent share of total ad expenditures in 2012, up from 39.2 percent in 2009. Television ad revenues this year are expected to reach $177.7 billion, rising to $197.6 billion in 2012.