ZenithOptimedia Revises Ad Forecast

LONDON: ZenithOptimedia has downgraded its global ad forecast, now expecting growth of 4.3 percent for the year instead of the previously predicted 4.8 percent.

The forecast for Western Europe was lowered to 1.5 percent, while Central and Eastern Europe dipped to 6.5 percent from last quarter’s forecast of 8 percent. Overall Eurozone ad spending is expected to fall 1.1 percent in 2012, with declines of 5 percent in Italy, 10.4 percent in Portugal, 12 percent in Spain and 19.5 percent in Greece. Adspend in Latin America and the Asia Pacific is expected to slow. In Latin America, the forecast has been downgraded from 9.2 percent to 7.8 percent. In the Asia Pacific, it’s down from 7.4 percent to 6.7 percent. The U.S. forecast is unchanged, at 3.6 percent, due in large part to it being an election year. The revised spending for the U.K. is upward, at 3.5 percent, though TV advertising in the country will hardly grow at all, at 0.5 percent, even with the London Olympic Games.

The Euro 2012 Football Championship has begun in Poland and Ukraine, with the Olympics happening in the U.K. in late July and August. These events, together with the U.S. elections, provide a regular boost to global adspend every four years, known as the quadrennial effect. This year ZenithOptimedia expect these events to add $6.3 billion to the global ad market.

The Internet is shown to be the fastest growing media, with ZenithOptimedia forecasting the segment to grow on average by 16 percent a year between 2011 and 2014. The company expects TV ad dollars to continue to shift from the broadcast networks to the cable networks. It predicts that broadcast TV revenues will be down 1 percent this year, while cable shows a 10-percent increase. Syndication spending will be off by 12 percent.