Trends for 2008

A look at the some of the trends and topics that are sure to impact the content industry this year.

Asia

The continued rebound in Asian economies has distributors feeling upbeat about ramping up their business in the world’s fastest-growing media market, with India and China leading the pack. As content owners look for ways to gain further access to Asian buyers, the question for many this year will be which market to attend: the long-running Asian Television Forum, or Reed MIDEM’s new market, Amazia. The former, organized by Reed Exhibitions Singapore, is moving to a new, expanded location in December, offering a so-called “suite style” exhibition concept at the Suntec convention center. Backed by the Media Development Authority of Singapore, the event is well attended by buyers from the local market, as well as from nearby Indonesia, the Philippines and Malaysia. Amazia, meanwhile, is being held in November, in Hong Kong, and already has solid support from a number of Chinese media companies, including the Shanghai Media Group and the local regulator, the State Administration of Radio, Film & Television (SARFT). Amazia is promising a diverse event, targeted to TV, music and digital content companies, with strong representation from Asian content owners. While some distributors are expected to attend both, others are finding that budgetary constraints and the timing of the two events will force them to choose just one.

Blogging

December 17, 2007, marked the ten-year anniversary of blogs, and as the online phenomenon heads into its second decade, its appeal and influence isn’t slowing down. The name “blog” is derived from the term weblog, which was coined by Jorn Barger to describe the list of links he had collected on his website. Since then, blogs have evolved into an all encompassing term that covers any piece of short-form, frequently updated content online, including personal journals, political or social commentary and trade news. With its muckraking advocates, and its early and innovative adoption of multimedia and other online technology, blogging has attained a widespread credibility that only serves to enhance its influence. Looking forward to 2008, a contentious presidential election in the U.S., continuing global turmoil and further expansion of computers and Internet technology into the distressed segments of the world, what will we see coming out of the easiest, cheapest, fastest and most accessible publishing tool in history?

British Upheaval

It was another “anno horribilis” in the U.K.—this time not for the royal family, but for the television industry. From faking the winners of phone-in competitions, even in children’s shows, to dodgy editing techniques in reality TV and in a program about Queen Elizabeth for the venerable BBC, viewer trust in British television has taken a beating. Broadcasters are now scrambling to implement standards for call-in competitions. Last week, the BBC unveiled a new set of regulations, including capping the price of calls to BBC programs at 15 pence. The heads of the BBC, ITV, Channel 4 and Five have also pledged to work together to develop proposals for industry-wide training on ethical standards and best practices, not only for their employees but also for freelancers. Meanwhile, the U.K. children’s television market is in complete crisis. ITV and Channel 4 have stopped financing children’s programming. Five focuses mainly on preschool, which leaves the BBC as the only terrestrial broadcaster commissioning and airing British-made kids’ shows. This has had a far-reaching damaging effect on U.K. producers and distributors of children’s programming. The more than 20 cable and satellite dedicated children’s channels rely on imported programming, much of it American. And to top it all off, the famous ban on commercials advertising junk food—unhealthy food and drink products—has gone into full effect. No such commercials are allowed in programs targeting kids under 16.

The Consumer

Named Time magazine’s person of the year last year, we, the consumers, are still reshaping the face of global media. From the countless blogs, blabs and YouTube gags to the rise of social networking and Wikipedia, user-generated and other online content has flooded the media and shows little sign of letting up. Our insatiable hunger for digital technology and portable players has changed the way content is delivered. And we can’t get enough of these pricey devices, from high-definition TVs and DVD players to Slingboxes and TiVos and iPhones. The consumers of ’08 will be no different, if anything, maybe even more voracious.

Eco-Programming

Eco-friendly programming took center stage this past year, led by the breathtaking high-definition Discovery/BBC production Planet Earth and the Oscar-winning documentary on global warming, An Inconvenient Truth. Discovery launched a multiplatform global initiative entitled “Planet Green,” which will include the rollout of its first 24/7 eco-lifestyle network in the U.S. this year. Meanwhile, Sundance Channel debuted the weekly prime-time programming block The Green, showcasing original series and documentaries about the earth’s ecology and concepts of “green living.” NBC Universal has also jumped on the bandwagon with its ambitious “Green Is Universal” initiative, which kicked off in November 2007 and included more than 150 hours of environmental-themed content encompassing all of its divisions across multiple platforms.

High-Definition DVD Formats

The battle between HD DVD and Blu-ray, jockeying for position among the studios and consumers as the leading new high-definition DVD format, was one of the most-analyzed media skirmishes of 2007. The HD DVD faction was dealt a recent blow when Warner Bros. Entertainment announced that it would release its high-definition DVD titles exclusive in the Blu-ray format beginning later this year. HD DVD gained some ground this past summer when Paramount Pictures and DreamWorks Animation pledged to exclusively back the format. However, the number of Hollywood studios who are Blu-ray supporters, which include Fox, Sony, Disney and now Warner Bros., still outnumber those in the HD DVD camp. Which format will prevail? Screen Digest predicts that in 2008, major players will begin moving to either format-agnostic or format-exclusive positions and that both formats must strive to make an impact on the HDTV viewer if high definition is to expand beyond more than just a niche market.

Hollywood Writers’ Strike

Broadcasters from around the world who rely on U.S. dramas and sitcoms to lure viewers are keeping a firm eye on the latest twists and turns in the Hollywood writers’ strike, which began November 5. Both sides of the negotiating table—the Writers Guild of America (WGA) and the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers (AMPTP)—are staying firm on several key issues, notably residuals from new-media use and jurisdiction over reality TV. While there are a smattering of new scripted episodes set to air in the coming weeks, American viewers will soon have to settle in to a fairly steady dose of variety, reality and game shows. And the long-term effects remain to be seen. With pilot season stalled, networks will have little to present at their Upfront presentations to advertisers in May. The studios, meanwhile, need product to showcase to international buyers at the annual L.A. Screenings. The U.S. broadcasters’ need for content, however, has opened up more opportunities for producers and distributors from around the world to score valuable American prime-time space, most notably in the unscripted formats arena.

Mobile TV

The ability to watch television on mobile phones became more of a reality this past year. Major U.S. broadcast networks like NBC and CBS have aligned with Verizon’s V CAST mobile TV platform, allowing subscribers with TV-capable phones to watch short-form video and even full-length episodes of their favorite prime-time shows, news programs and late-night talk shows on the small screen. Sporting events could also provide a surge in subscribers to mobile TV, with ESPN already offering up a plethora of mobile content via Verizon’s V CAST service. Expect to see a renewed interest in mobile TV in the run-up to the 2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing and the UEFA Euro 2008 Championship.

Online Video

2007 was definitely the biggest year yet for online video. There were the releases of several online video platforms, including Joost and Babelgum. Download-to-own services like iTunes and Amazon Unbox continued to generate revenues. And the Hollywood studios have all put their stamp on the online streaming and download model, perhaps most exemplified by Hulu, the joint venture from NBC Universal and News Corporation. Recent reports indicate that there will be no slowdown in the development of Internet-enabled video. With over 865 million current broadband users worldwide, and an expected 1.01 billion by the end of 2008, the infrastructure for online video is spreading rapidly. Scores of new services are expected to launch or go into public betas this year, including Microsoft’s anticipated LiveStation.Meanwhile, the ongoing writer’s strike could turn more eyeballs towards online content, which is itself already making waves in the traditional TV space. MTV recently ordered a second season of the dating show A Shot at Love with Tila Tequila, featuring bisexual Internet celebrity Tila Tequila, whose claim to fame was her popularity on the social networking site MySpace. NBC revealed plans to premiere the drama series quarterlife next month—the series also had its origins on MySpace. The snarky celebrity entertainment gossip website TMZ.com, which offers breaking news on the likes of Paris Hilton, Lindsay Lohan and other Hollywood elite, also made the jump from the Internet to the TV screen when it launched in U.S. syndication last fall as a weekday show distributed by Warner Bros.

Research

In the U.S., Nielsen Media Research continues to shift its focus to enhancing its media analysis and adapting its services to better suit the digital environment. In 2007, the company began its initiative to integrate TV and Internet measurement, including the addition of ratings for viewing on such portable devices as cell phones and iPods. It also ramped up its Nielsen/NetRatings unit to track video programming delivered on the web, and has added the Internet to its People Meter sample. On top of all this, the company launched its C3 ratings, which provide statistics for viewers watching time-shifted programming. Given that the company has vowed to continue down the digital road—including a goal to eliminate paper diaries in all markets by 2011—and that video is likely to make big steps in 2008 in its evolution to an anytime, anywhere, multiplatform medium, new services are expected this year that will reshape our understanding of video consumption.

Social Networking

What started as a simple idea to connect with classmates and old friends has transformed into a multibillion-dollar industry that advertisers and investors are flocking to in droves. Microsoft beat out Google and Yahoo! to make an investment in the three-year-old startup Facebook, paying a reported $240 million for a 1.6-percent stake. The investment values the company, which will bring in some $150 million in revenue for the year, at $15 billion. Its 23-year-old founder, Mark Zuckerberg, owns a 20-percent share, which may now be worth as much as $3 billion. Facebook is currently the second largest social network on the web, behind MySpace, which has twice as many members as Facebook, but is growing more slowly. In 2005 Rupert Murdoch’s News Corporation bought up Intermix Media, MySpace’s parent company, for $580 million, and at the time, the buzz was that Murdoch overpaid. This acquisition now seems like a bargain compared to Microsoft’s recent Facebook investment, and reflects just how quickly the value of these web companies is rising. Time will tell whether these are worthy investments, or boom-and-bust trends.