Netflix International Subs to Outnumber U.S. by 2018


LONDON: The number of international Netflix subscribers is forecast to exceed its U.S. total by 2018, according to new analysis from IHS Markit.

Netflix’s total number of subscribers grew 30 percent between 2014 and 2015. It is forecast to increase 21 percent in 2016, as territorial expansion reaches its peak. By 2018, Netflix is expected to break the 100 million-subscriber mark.

The number of international paying subscribers is set to grow 38 percent in 2016, with more than 2.8 million of these subs coming from the new markets the service launched in at the start of the year.

At the end of 2016, Western Europe will be the leading region for Netflix outside the domestic U.S. subscriber base, with strong U.K. (6 million-plus subscribers by the end of 2016), Netherlands and Nordic (5.4 million subscribers combined) markets. Germany is expected to reach 2.2 million paying subscribers by the end of 2020.

“At the moment, Netflix has 79.9 million total paying subscribers,” said Irina Kornilova, senior analyst at IHS Technology. “By 2018, international subscribers will overtake the number of subscribers in the U.S. for the first time, and by 2020, Netflix will have 75 million international subscribers.”

“With the worldwide launch, Netflix has launched a platform upon which it can build and differentiate the service to fit specifics of every region in the future,” Kornilova said. “Netflix is starting this localization process in Poland and Turkey this year. Subscribers in these countries can expect an addition of local languages to the user interface, subtitles and dubbing of content. This will help drive new subscriber numbers dramatically.”