Original Spin

Despite rising production costs, first-run drama series remain integral to the lineups of the major U.S. cable networks.

For some years now, on basic-cable television, scripted, original series have been the stars, the sine qua non, the buzz generators for top networks. They sit at the peak of the basic-cable programming pyramid, as Bob DeBitetto, the president and general manager of A&E Network and Bio, puts it. But lately there are increasing signs that the spectacular recent growth of first-run dramas and sitcoms on cable may be flattening out.

Even though the big cable networks like A&E, FX, Syfy, TBS, TNT and USA Network are immensely profitable, rising production costs, a mature cable universe with slim prospects for subscriber growth and a paucity of real hits are combining to take some of the luster off first-run series.

Some circumstantial evidence to support that notion is as follows: A&E is adding only one new drama this year, Longmire, a ten-episode mystery series. And while it is renewing The Glades and Breakout Kings for ten hours each, far more hours are going into unscripted series like the Storage Wars franchise, the new Shipping Wars, four recently renewed real-life crime and justice series—The First 48, Beyond Scared Straight, Dog the Bounty Hunter and Steven Seagal Lawman—and American Hoggers, which follows a Texas family that hunts wild hogs.

AMC, which has a genuine hit with The Walking Dead, and the critically acclaimed Mad Men, Breaking Bad and The Killing, has no plans to launch new series this year and instead acquired its first off-net series last month: CSI: Miami.

TNT expects to continue to air seven to nine scripted dramas each year, but at the same time is ramping up its unscripted-series business. The network observes that on cable and broadcast, unscripted storytelling has become the preferred drama for a lot of viewers.

Syfy, a major player in original series with around 350 first-run hours last year, plans to increase that to about 425 hours in 2012 with unscripted overtaking scripted with ten new titles.

USA continued to have success with dramas like Royal Pains, Burn Notice and Covert Affairs, but is moving aggressively into unscripted this year with The Choir, a musical format series; The Moment, hosted by former NFL quarterback Kurt Warner; and two untitled series described as a social experiment and a reality soap opera.

FX, a leader in scripted dramas like Sons of Anarchy and American Horror Story and comedies like Louie and It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia, declined an interview request to talk about scripted series, saying in an e-mail, “Nothing on the horizon as of now.”

The Los Angeles Times last month ran a business page article saying that U.S. cable networks are beginning to feel the pinch of dramatically higher programming expenses, with rising costs for sports rights and the production of original series. The article reported that Nomura Equity Research had downgraded the entire U.S. media sector to “neutral” from “bullish” and quoted a Nomura analyst as saying, “Cable networks are more challenged than they have been in the last five to ten years. You have these rising programming costs, and the other core issue is that there are fewer new TV households being formed.”

Those points notwithstanding, cable execs still see original first-run series as a key component in audience- and brand-building.

A&E’s DeBitetto says one of the reasons first-run remains attractive is that his network and others have seen erosion in the ratings of off-network dramas and movies.

“Every off-network show has its life span,” DeBitetto says. “The problem is, certainly for the first time that I’ve been involved in this business, there is really nothing coming off the broadcast networks that is going to do me any good, or any of the other cable networks any good. Many of them are not designed to be repeatable; they don’t have the right aspect or the right storytelling to be rerun the way cable had been doing in the past. A good example of that is The Good Wife, which is a phenomenal show, but they haven’t sold it [into syndication] yet, and one of the reasons is that it’s quite serialized and makes it quite difficult to rerun.”

ACTION REPLAY

The series that would work in reruns, like Hawaii Five-0 and NCIS: Los Angeles, are quite expensive, he notes. “It’s becoming clear to me that the future for us is going to be our ability to create original programming. A&E has always been a mix of original and acquired, but our challenge in the next 18 months to two years is that we need to transform A&E to a 100-percent original-programming network. And we are almost there already. I think [this] year most weeks we will only have one night, maybe, that is devoted to Criminal Minds and the other six nights will be devoted to our original programming franchises. As successful as our partnership with CBS has been on a show like Criminal Minds or CSI: Miami, they don’t really brand A&E the way that Intervention and Storage Wars brand A&E.”

The reason DeBitetto puts his three scripted dramas at the top of the program pyramid is that they appeal to blue-chip advertisers. “Great scripted programming tends to drive pricing,” he says. “They tend to demand the greatest CPM base, and that essentially gives our ad-sales guys a great asset to help in their sales strategy. So to me it’s a bit of a less-is-more strategy. I’d like to see in any given 12-month period maybe three original scripted franchises on the network, as a great piece of the overall puzzle. As we earn success, [we can] maybe add to that. Said another way, the last thing I want to do is try to replicate the U.S. broadcast model, because I don’t think anybody thinks that is a good model.”

DRAMATIC TURNS

Probably no network has built its brand on scripted hours more than the “We know drama” folks at TNT. Following the success of the off-network Law & Order franchise, TNT launched The Closer in 2005, followed by a series of police and legal procedurals. Lately, though, it has branched out into new genres, specifically targeting viewers of its weekend movies.

“Falling Skies was our first effort to do that,” says Michael Wright, the executive VP and head of programming at TBS, TNT and TCM. “Falling Skies is full of hope and heart and humor. It’s an adventure story, not a nihilist drama. It was a good way to take that movie-loving audience that comes to TNT on weekends and bring them to a series. It was our number one rated show in the demo.” The show premiered last summer and was renewed for a second season in 2012.

Also going beyond the procedural genre are Gateway, a period western, and a more modern western with a strong pedigree, Dallas.

“The significant thing about Dallas,” Wright says, “is that it is not a remake. As Michael Robin” (The Closer, Rizzoli & Isles, Nip/Tuck) “the director and executive producer of the show, said, ‘It’s as if the cameras left 20-some-odd years ago, but the Ewings went on with it. Now the cameras have come back.’ Dallas was always about those incredibly relatable familial conflicts taken to the nth degree. Cynthia Cidre” (The Mambo Kings, In Country), “who did a beautiful job writing the pilot and who is showrunning the series, and Michael embrace and celebrate what Dallas was, starting with bringing back Larry Hagman, Linda Gray and Patrick Duffy, the heart of the original series, playing vital roles along with a new generation.”

Wright ac­know­ledges that the show will attract an older audience at first, but he is confident the cast and writing will attract younger view­­ers too.

“Gateway, like Falling Skies, is a big, fun genre piece,” Wright says. “We’re doing the smart-popcorn take on a western. It’s big and exciting and fun, infused with historical authenticity but its intention is to entertain you. It isn’t Deadwood. There’s room for both. All westerns are not equal.”

In the more traditional TNT mold are two new procedurals: Perception, starring Eric McCormack as a scientist who helps the feds crack tough cases, and Major Crimes, essentially a continuation of The Closer, which ends its run this year after seven seasons, following star Kyra Sedgwick’s decision to bow out.

“We have, in any given year, between seven and nine scripted series,” Wright says. “But TNT, like everyone else, is getting aggressively into the unscripted business. You have to go there. We might go from nine scripted series down to seven at a certain point to allow for more unscripted on the network. The assumption in years past was that networks would engage in unscripted storytelling because it was cheaper. The reality today is that unscripted storytelling has become the preferred drama for a lot of viewers. To not be in that space, for a network branded as a drama network, is almost a sin of omission. I wish we’d been there a year ago, but we will be in that space aggressively starting next summer.”

Wright hopes TNT will have the right balance of programming in two or three years, but he doesn’t claim to know just what that balance will be right now.

“Part of the fun of this business is you feel your way, you act and react, you learn as you go,” he says. “We know at TNT our brand is smart popcorn. We know the vibe of the network, so that we can find the proper mix of scripted to unscripted to acquired to movies to sports. As long as they all add up to a consistency of tone and appeal, we’re in good shape.”

BANNER YEAR

Syfy, which is owned by NBCUniversal, had its best year in 2011 based on a mix of unscripted and scripted original series, the latter including Warehouse 13, Alphas, Eureka, Being Human and Haven. The network averaged 1.33 million viewers in prime time, up 10 percent from 2010.

“Scripted is at the heart of this brand,” says Dave Howe, the president of Syfy. “We have a record of scripted series and mini-series going back almost a decade. It’s what Syfy is about.” Of the top five scripted series, only Eureka will not be back in 2012.

“Our total original hours [last] year was around 350, scripted and unscripted,” Howe says. “That goes up [this] year to around 425. In 2012, we’re going to overtake the scripted with the unscripted. We’ll be doing even more in the future.”

Original programming is key to Syfy because there is so little available for acquisition in the fantasy/sci-fi genre it favors. The acquired series Merlin, from FremantleMedia Enterprises, and, new this year, Lost Girl, from Canada’s Showcase channel, are first-run in the U.S.

UNSCRIPTED SUCCESS

“Our future is in original development,” Howe continues. “Scripted is more challenging because it is considerably more expensive. Unscripted is a great opportunity for us, which is why we’re going to add another 50 hours. We’ll be launching at least ten new titles. We really want to be much more risk-taking and experimental about the unscripted space. It skews younger and brings in more women. It’s a great way to grow the brand and bring in more viewers.”

AMC has one of the best performing scripted cable series in The Walking Dead and one of the most honored and acclaimed in Mad Men. It launched Hell on Wheels in November, joining Breaking Bad and The Killing in its original-series roster.

“We have an aggressive development slate, but in terms of launching new series, [there are] no plans for that in 2012,” says Joel Stillerman, the senior VP of original programming. Hell on Wheels has been renewed for a second season. The other confirmed shows for 2012 are Mad Men, The Killing, Breaking Bad and The Walking Dead.

Stillerman says AMC doesn’t have quotas for scripted series on the channel. “Our attitude is that we’re on a slow build and we’ll add things when we think they’re right. There’s no maximum or minimum. The win for us is when we make stuff we can stand by and nurture over time and build into a successful franchise. We’ve confirmed seasons five and six on Mad Men, two more years.”

Stillerman expects to stick with dramas and he likes that AMC’s diverse lineup of movie titles gives it a flexible brand. “We have something unique in that we’re a network that is about an eclectic approach to drama,” he says. “We love the fact that we have a network with Mad Men and The Walking Dead. It’s OK if there’s not a ton of crossover between those two shows. We know there are a lot of people not inclined to watch zombie shows who watched The Walking Dead and loved it. Our feeling is we want to create pockets of passion and excel there. We’re more about being bold than broad.”

The challenge is in the business model. “We’re all looking for a model that allows you to scale the kind of success that we and some of the other networks have had on scripted dramas,” Stillerman says. “The holy grail is to not have it be a loss leader. In some cases it’s terrific because it brings people to your network, and in our case not just ratings success but critical acclaim. But you have to build a better model, and that’s going to require more creative partnerships out there with all the entities—studios and independent financiers—and looking for different ways to monetize.”

AMC’s sister channel, Sundance Channel, is adding the legal drama Rectify this year to its lineup of original movies and mini-series, acquired and unscripted content.

“We fell in love with the script,” says Sarah Barnett, Sundance Channel’s executive VP and general manager. “It was by Ray McKinnon, who is primarily known as an actor” (Sons of Anarchy, Deadwood, The Blind Side, O Brother, Where Art Thou?). “It’s representative of the kind of story it makes sense for Sundance to tell, which is to say a story that has a really singular vision.”

Sundance will remain primarily a movie channel, Barnett says, but she hopes to add more original series and one-offs. “Now is the perfect time. There is so much extraordinary talent out there. I think there is room for many players in the world of scripted quality television. As an industry, we’ve only begun to scratch the surface.”

TICKLING THE FUNNY BONE

Channels with a heavy comedy component have tended to gravitate more toward acquired series—perhaps because sitcoms seem to repeat better than drama—and unscripted series.

TV Land was built on off-network reruns, but has had success with Hot in Cleveland, now in its third season, Retired at 35, Happily Divorced and The Exes.

“I hope we’re just starting,” says Keith Cox, the executive VP of development and original programming at the Viacom-owned channel. “The plan is to keep building and finding different voices and characters, move into the single-camera business.”

Current shows are shot in the traditional multi-camera mode, matching many of its off-net sitcoms and appealing to a somewhat older target audience. “We’re really looking for strong voices, show­runners with something strong to say,” Cox says. “We produce everything in-house, so we need people who can really run the show.”

Late last year, TV Land shot a pilot for a series starring Cedric the Entertainer as a minister, a character developed for Hot in Cleveland. “He, as a comedian, has a very strong point of view,” Cox says.

Turner’s Wright says that TBS, the comedy domain under his purview, is a few years behind TNT in developing scripted series. “We’ve had some very good shows that did fine for us, but we’ve never had the big breakout prime-time hit on TBS,” he says. “Part of the problem on TBS is we’ve never had that big lead-in that we had for years on TNT with Law & Order.”

Wright is hoping that will change with TBS’s recent purchase of The Big Bang Theory, a Chuck Lorre CBS show with broad appeal. “It’s exactly what you want as a lead-in. It’s not niche programming. To have that show now, just as we’re getting heavily into the half-hour scripted comedy space, which is what we’ve been focusing on, is terrific.”

TBS premiered its new original comedy Tyler Perry’s For Better or Worse to 3.4 million total viewers in November. The sitcom, based on Perry’s Why Did I Get Married? movies, reached 1.8 million adults 18 to 49 in its 10 p.m. launch. At 10:30 p.m., another episode drew similar numbers.

CUE THE QUIRK

IFC, which thrives on quirky comedy and independent movies, started new seasons of Portlandia, with Fred Armisen, and The Increasingly Poor Decisions of Todd Margaret, starring David Cross, earlier this month.

“Alternative scripted comedy is an area of focus for us,” says Jennifer Caserta, the executive VP and general manager of IFC. “We will continue to increase the commitment. We had six shows [last] year. It will be about the same [this] year. The intention is to grow it from there.”

Furthermore, IFC is blurring the line between scripted and unscripted shows. One is based on “Comedy Bang Bang: The Podcast” by Scott Aukerman. “It’s a mix of celebrity guests, mostly comedians, variety sketches, all led by Scott,” Caserta says. “Pointless is a game show that isn’t really a game show. It’s comedy improv meets game show, part scripted, part improv, hosted by comedian Kurt Braunohler.”

This summer will see the launch of the scripted show Bullet in the Face. “It marries two sensibilities,” Caserta says. “We call it a comedic action-thriller. It’s pulp stylized, with Eric Roberts and Eddie Izzard as guest stars.”

For a cable channel building toward full distribution, as IFC still is, originals remain a way to attract viewers and new distribution. “Original programming defines a network and its brand better than anything else you can do on your air,” Caserta says. “We have a very rich development cycle, the most robust we’ve ever had. We’re looking at everything from sketch to single-camera to animation.”

The key for all the major U.S. cable networks will be finding business models that allow them to produce high-quality originals amid a competitive and fragmented landscape.