Chasing Greatness: European Scripted Trends

Despite so much change in the drama industry, European producers and distributors are relying on well-packaged deals, flexibility and collaboration to continue to offer compelling shows.

It is no secret that the scripted programming market has faced numerous challenges over the last few years. Rising production costs and a decline in advertising spend have made linear commissioners more cautious. International streamers have decreased their investments in drama, thereby reducing their availability as co-production partners. European producers and distributors, who have relied on U.S. presales to fill financing gaps, are navigating these changes but remain committed to offering audiences compelling, character-driven storytelling. In the journey from idea to screen, the budget is the biggest determining factor in whether a project gets greenlit today.

Cathy Payne, CEO of Banijay Rights, explains, “As has been well documented, the retraction of the U.S. co-production market in recent years has had a marked impact on the ability to underpin deficit financing.”

“The number of potential co-production partners has decreased as a result of the consolidation of services, commissioning decisions and a preference for domestic commissioning,” she continues. “Potential partners are very selective and look for a project to be packaged well with known on- and off-screen talent, as they ask, ‘How will this project resonate with my audience?’ This has resulted in distributors needing to be selective about the financing risks they take.”

Jens Richter, CEO of commercial and international at Fremantle, concurs that the U.S. is commissioning less and buying less. “Three or four years ago, when you got a commission in the U.K., you would find a distributor … to provide the gap financing, and the producer was off to the races. Then, about two or three years ago, the first commissions happened that couldn’t find financing anymore. Commissioners often want to see the financing structure in place before they even commission the show. Currently, there are a handful of commissions in the U.K. market that broadcasters would love to do, but they can’t get financed, as these shows are too local for too much money.”

“At a time when the U.S. is much more selective, we need to look at the nature of the show to determine whether it meets U.S. commercial needs,” continues Richter. “Secondly, even if you hit that need, you have to assume it will take you longer to get that deal done because there’s a bit more decision-making by committee. Clearly, this has implications for European commissioning and production.”

CAUTION RULES
“It’s definitely a slower market than it used to be,” notes Tim Mutimer, CEO of Cineflix Rights. “People take a long time to make decisions. Every buyer has to go through several layers before they can make a decision and try to minimize risk, which is what everyone is about these days.”
Distributors are also being more cautious, taking longer to evaluate projects to ensure they will appeal to more than one territory.

“Our sole objective is to get a show that is as internationally appealing as possible, which means that it has a theme that resonates globally or some cast that is very well-known globally,” explains Louise Pedersen, CEO of All3Media International.

“We track projects from a very early stage,” she says. “At that point, we try to give producers an early sense of whether we’re interested or not, so that we can either continue the conversations or they can talk to other people. We try to be really clear about that. Then we will take the deficit as the distributor. We will come in and gap finance for the right shows. And if we bring in a German or Australian co-producer, we take that toward recouping our investment. So, the distribution advance model is still alive. It’s just that distributors are probably being a little bit more cautious about where they spend their money because costs have gone up.”

The cost and the potential for extending a series into additional seasons are also considerations when evaluating projects.

“We read scripts, we give our advice and we talk about attachments; this is a constant process at Banijay Rights,” adds Payne. “Like many things in life, a lot of financing is about timing. Potential licensees need to understand where the story arc is and where season two goes. When we’re looking at what we invest in, I often think, ‘OK, that’s season one. How much more is it going to cost for us to also invest in the next two scripts for season two?’ Another thing that can really help with production speed and costs is having all the scripts written up front because then you can shoot and get talent in and out. This certainly helps with timing around high-profile talent.”

The location where a show is shot is increasingly a key factor when calculating the budget. In fact, nowadays, numerous budgets are run to allow for different options.

“Five years ago, you got a commission, you made your budget and you went into production,” says Richter. “In 2025, you get a commission and then you think about where and how to produce your shows most efficiently. For some shows, instead of one budget, we run three, four or five different budgets for different budget locations. You consider the cost of production in the region or territory and the local incentives. In some markets, we might have our own studio capacity available. We run through many more production scenarios these days, and that helps quite a bit.”

In today’s cost-conscious environment, financing a show also involves calculating the revenues it can generate after its first run.

“As we advance money against projects, we look not just at the first window now, but also at how we can window quickly so we can get our money back as soon as we can,” says Mutimer. “It has become more complex. Soft money is important as well, so we consider where we can film a project that gives us access to more funding that can go toward a bigger budget.”

COOPERATION & FLEXIBILITY
As Payne points out, distributors and licensees are benefiting from being flexible. “People are sharing windows. Nonlinear platforms might only take a select number of territories. Broadcasters are prepared to share windows in a much shorter timeframe because they have to secure financing. When do you need exclusive rights? When can you live with non-exclusive? We’re seeing, in general, so much more non-exclusive licensing. Not always around the premiere window, but keeping the windows very manageable. Day-and-date is a must-have for anything really notable.”

The international streamers, once intent on acquiring worldwide rights, have been changing their programming strategies.

“Many streamers have dedicated production budgets allocated to their local territories,” explains Fremantle’s Richter. “Paramount does that, Amazon does that. Then we can come in and take the risk and invest for the rest of the world. Sometimes we might sell it back to them, as we did with Little Disasters for the U.S. That helps the commissioners to be more cautious with their budgets and more market-centric. It also opens an opportunity for us as a producer and distributor to zoom in on a specific market, retain some rights, take the risk and consider how we may need to think about the casting or other aspects of the show to make it fit the rest of the world.”

“This openness of a streamer going only for local markets is also relatively new,” continues Richter. “Five years ago, it was always worldwide rights and vertical integration. And the streamer needed that show on its platform forever.”

In an environment marked by so much change, European broadcasters and producers have found innovative ways to form beneficial partnerships.

“We have seen plenty of alliances with public broadcasters,” explains Banijay Rights’ Payne. “ZDF has been working more closely with the BBC, for instance. Then, of course, you have alliances between countries. Everybody’s looking for affordable scripted projects and how they can potentially co-develop and co-fund. Understanding how budgets can be maximized through tax credits is essential, and Banijay, being the largest scripted producer in Europe, is well placed in this area.”

All3Media International’s Pedersen agrees. “What many European producers are doing very successfully is forming relationships with one another, developing financing plans themselves and involving broadcasters in Europe as well. And that seems to be a model that they all like. That’s the way they’re getting a lot more shows funded.”

PLAYING IT SAFE
Production has become more expensive, and advertising revenues have fallen. As a result, channels and platforms want to place their bets on shows with a good chance of drawing viewers.

Increases in production costs, challenged budgets and risk aversion have led commissioners and buyers to opt for what scripted shows they consider safe and cost-effective, says Richter. “The biggest change during the last three or four years has been a very focused shift toward mainstream programming.”

“Six or seven years ago, it was all about premium drama,” he continues. “Streaming services, especially, were a big sandbox, and people could try different genres of shows targeting niche audiences. Everybody was under the impression that the big advantage of on-demand is that you can focus on niche audiences, which you can. But then there was this big shift from revenue growth to profitability, with the realization that when you want to reach niche audiences, relative to your investment, you end up serving a small group. When you hit a much bigger consumer group with that same investment, you have a much better return on investment.”

Therefore, “potential licensees, in general, do not have limited series on top of their shopping lists,” notes Payne. “The focus is on returning series that allow them to build on their initial marketing expense. There will always be shows that break the mold, but they have to be special—with unique talent or just be a very special, strong project that has the ability to resonate globally, such as Netflix’s Adolescence.”

To offset risk aversion, programming executives believe that shows based on known IP, whether inspired by books, films or past series, have a recognition factor that will draw fans.

“If you can launch a series that’s based on IP that already has recognition in your territory, that makes you feel slightly more secure that you’re going to have a hit and are going to find an audience,” says Cineflix Rights’ Mutimer. “I guess it’s no surprise that three of our new series are all based on IP—Anna Pigeon, The Walsh Sisters and Hildur—because that’s what our buyers are asking for; they’re asking for as many guarantees as they can get.”

“The other thing that known IP brings is the ability to build a stronger package because writers, showrunners and actors are all attracted to something they feel has the potential to be really successful,” he continues. “The IP gives them a level of comfort, while a brand-new, original project would feel riskier to them.”

“In this market, whether it be known IP, a great cast, a well-known director, all those things make buyers feel more secure about the project and the way that it’s going to turn out,” adds All3Media International’s Pedersen. “So, yes, known IP definitely gives buyers that extra bit of comfort and security. In a market where buyers are more risk-averse, having a great bit of IP or some great casting really helps.”

“We always say no one knows what will be a hit until it breaks through, but, of course, crime procedurals have always been a genre that’s endured over the years,” says Banijay Rights’ Payne. “People are looking for strong storytelling and characters an audience can identify with—whether they’re good or bad—and who they can go through the journey with. But no doubt, if buyers are thinking of risk, it helps to have very strong talent attached. By having that talent, you’re helping them formulate in their minds how to sell it to their viewers.”

Of course, all known IPs started as original ideas. Despite widespread risk aversion, shows based on new stories and concepts can break through. What helps them is having recognizable creators or stars and relatable or intriguing themes.

As Cineflix Rights’ Mutimer explains, “Boldness helps, which again has to do with the talent that you bring in, writing and directing it. If it’s clear, stands out from the rest of the market and speaks to the zeitgeist and what’s going on culturally, people can see a reason why this program is being made.”

“Character is still key, so if you’ve got strong characters, that is something else that buyers look at, and audiences look at and fall in love with,” he continues. “You’ve got to have all the ingredients that make a great hit. There is still room for programs outside the traditional thriller, procedural or based-on-IP [genres], but it’s tougher. Everyone has to raise their game if they’re going to experiment in that area.”

“A show based on an original idea has to address issues that are relevant around the world, as Adolescence did with boys and social media; that’s something everyone worries about globally,” explains Pedersen. “Shows that deal with specific U.K.-based crime or U.K.-based political issues or social problems that don’t apply in the rest of the world are harder. A good crime story, a good detective show, a good action thriller—they are always going to get attention. But riskier or non-traditional shows have to say something that is universal.”

“A really good show will cut through,” adds Banijay Rights’ Payne. “Take Richard Gadd’s Baby Reindeer [as an example]. It is a compelling story that delivered on so many fronts—from the performances to the production—and is must-watch television that you cannot stop watching. It’s a story told in a very interesting way. That’s what’s so great about Richard—he’s telling different, challenging stories that capture the audience’s imagination. Half Man, [written by Gadd] for the BBC and HBO, stars Gadd and Jamie Bell as estranged ‘brothers’ Ruben and Niall, respectively. This sort of relationship is one you just don’t see on screen that often.”

COMFORT & ESCAPISM
It’s not only producers and distributors who are facing change and disruption; viewers are as well. The desire to dive into a show that can transport us out of our daily lives is as strong as ever.

As Pedersen notes, when watching All Creatures Great and Small, “People feel like, Oh, I can just relax and enjoy this. [There’s] that need for escapism. The Brokenwood Mysteries from South Pacific Pictures does a fabulous job of that. It feels like the world is dark enough without lots of gritty crime, doesn’t it?”

“We like those kinds of shows—either the setting is a character because of its nature and beauty, or because it’s upmarket,” agrees Fremantle’s Richter, citing Sullivan’s Crossing and Little Disasters and their ability to provide viewers with escape. “We have wars going on in the world. People are thinking about their jobs and the impact of AI. The cost of living is pushing up, and consumers are under pressure. So, when you come home in the evening or on your weekend, you want to watch entertaining shows.”

Providing entertainment through strong, engaging storytelling, whether featuring familiar characters or new ones, remains the primary focus for leading European producers and distributors.

Interestingly, despite the constant change in the industry, some features from the past have returned.

“We are now back in the world of the 2000s,” notes Richter. “Windowing is back. Commercial mainstream television is back, and commissioning for a single territory is back. It’s quite a shift.”