The Past’s Influence on the Future

Since the beginning of the year, there has been a flood of 2016 nostalgia online, with people posting what they remember from ten years ago, from politics (Trump elected to his first term, Brexit) to fashion and beauty trends (skinny jeans, Millennial pink, bold eyebrows) to games (Pokémon GO) and, of course, numerous developments in music, film and television, as well as milestones from personal lives.

People are remembering pop culture highlights, including Beyoncé’s Lemonade; movies like Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, Captain America: Civil War, Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice and Zootopia; and TV shows such as Stranger Things, The Crown and The Night Manager, as well as The Great British Bake Off, Big Brother and Got Talent.

Most of these posts are from Millennials and older Gen Zers, who psychologists claim are longing for a time when life was easier and less expensive and are grappling with anxiety about how AI will affect their jobs and lives.

These feelings and concerns are widely shared by people of all ages in the TV industry—wait, that’s what we called it in 2016; now, a more appropriate term is “content industry.” Today, content doesn’t come only from major studios, broadcasters and indie producers and distributors. It comes from online creators—maybe some of them are posting about 2016!

Ten years ago, viewership of linear channels had already started to decline but was still significant. Public and privately owned broadcasters still garnered meaningful audiences for major drama and reality shows, news and sports. Long-running procedurals drew dedicated aficionados, as did daily soaps.

Streamers were focusing on scripted series that broke the mold or offered new takes on existing genres, such as the aforementioned Stranger Things and The Crown, plus Billions and Fleabag, while Game of Thrones, Black Mirror and The Walking Dead continued to attract fans.

It was easier to distinguish between a show made for linear and one made for a streamer. There were, of course, exceptions, but generally, terms like “premium,” “high-end” and “high-budget” were used more often to describe long-running or limited series for streamers or pay TV. “Mainstream” was more often used for shows on free-TV channels.

Today, the scripted market has been shaken by escalating production costs, decreased advertising spend, ongoing consolidation and chronic risk aversion. Producers and distributors are navigating this ongoing evolution of the business with a focus on continuing to provide audiences with quality storytelling and compelling characters.

Industry conditions are changing, but one constant remains—viewers still want to be captivated by dystopian worlds, dazzled by expert sleuthing, bemused by seeing the rich struggle or relieved to witness the average guy or girl win.

For our February edition of World Screen, coming out on February 18, I spoke with numerous executives from major production and distribution companies about the state of the European scripted market. Banijay Rights’ Cathy Payne, Fremantle’s Jens Richter, All3Media International’s Louise Pedersen and Cineflix Rights’ Tim Mutimer all readily admit the challenges in getting projects funded, especially since U.S. streaming services have reduced their commissions and prebuys.

They acknowledge the prevalent risk aversion. One way to reduce it is to produce shows based on known IP or featuring famous talent, both of which tend to attract viewers.

New ideas can break through, but they must be bold and innovative and connect with the culture, giving buyers reassurance that these new scripted series will draw audiences, thereby helping to recoup their investment in the shows.

There have also been some interesting recent developments. There is less distinction these days between shows considered right for linear and those appropriate for streamers. Linear channels want loyal viewers. Streamers are more interested in posting profits than in increasing the number of subscribers. A popular category on both linear and streaming is mainstream programming.

There is also less insistence on retaining exclusive rights. Exclusivity remains important for some shows, but both broadcasters and streamers are becoming more willing to share rights for certain titles, giving distributors the opportunity to exploit more windows.

Distributors are also noticing more partnerships among European broadcasters, especially the public ones, who share programming strategies.

FOX Entertainment Studios’ Fernando Szew also believes in the power of partnerships. As the head of several production labels, he is seeking international alliances to create relevant, scalable programming with global appeal.

I get the feeling that many in the content industry wish we could go back ten years, when financing was more available and deals were simpler. Everyone is trying to figure out the new normal while recognizing the elements from the past that remain relevant.