Digital TV Research is forecasting that Netflix will have 201 million streaming subscribers by 2023, up by 82 percent from 111 million at the end of 2017.
According to the Netflix Forecasts report, about 28 million subscribers will be added in 2018, making it the largest growth year ever. Lower growth is expected after 2018.
North America and Western Europe will together account for 62 percent of Netflix’s total subscriber base by 2023—still dominant, but down from 76 percent in 2017. The Asia Pacific will see rapid growth, taking 14 percent of the 2023 total. This represents 28 million subs, quadruple the 2017 figure.
Although the number of international subscribers overtook U.S. ones in 2017, the U.S. will still contribute 44 percent of subs by 2023 and will add 16 million between 2017 and 2023.
Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research, said: “These forecasts are a lot higher than the last edition of this report. Similar to many other analysts, we underestimated the fast take-up in international markets.”
Streaming subscription revenues for Netflix will increase by 155 percent from $11.3 billion in 2017 to $28.8 billion in 2023. The U.S. will contribute $11.2 billion, with four other countries above $1 billion.